Why Montreal’s Qualifying Offer to Kirby Dach Was So Unusual

Kirby Dach has filed for salary arbitration against the Montreal Canadiens — but the more interesting story might be why, and what might have happened just before that. It might have something to do with the specifics of the qualifying offer, a not-so-minor aspect of it that is somewhat buried in the fine print.

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Dach was tendered a $4 million qualifying offer on June 29, standard practice to retain a team’s rights to a restricted free agent. And, given that he’s been injured a lot, and not terribly productive, $4 million isn’t a bad offer. When it was first learned that he’d filed for arbitration, many wondered why.

What wasn’t standard about the qualifying offer was that it was a two-way offer, meaning Dach’s $4 million is only guaranteed at the NHL level, and he could be paid AHL wages if sent to the minors. Most established NHL regulars get a one-way qualifying offer as a matter of course. Dach didn’t. Why? Because he played fewer than 60 games last season, and fewer than 180 combined over the past three years.

Those game totals are directly tied to Dach’s well-documented health problems, and issuing a two-way offer is about as clear a signal as a front office can send: we’re not fully confident you’ll be healthy or effective enough to guarantee you an NHL role. Dach has appeared in just 154 of a possible 328 games since joining Montreal, a 47% participation rate that includes just 37 games this past season. His health issues have made his acquisition by the Canadiens one of their few misses.

Still, Dach doesn’t want to put himself in a position where he can be demoted and paid pennies on the dollar. His response was to reject the offer and file for arbitration. According to TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie, filing doesn’t necessarily mean Dach is holding out for more than $4 million. “When a player files for arbitration, they only want to force teams to negotiate,” Lavoie said, adding that it “doesn’t mean he’ll sign for more than $4M per.”

He could just be trying to strong-arm the Canadiens into a one-way offer. Perhaps he’ll have to budge on the AAV to ensure he’s guaranteed an NHL salary.

Arbitration isn’t really a demand for a specific number — it’s a mechanism to force a conversation, with an independent arbitrator as the backstop if Montreal and Dach’s camp can’t agree on a deal beforehand. Public value models have actually pegged Dach’s real worth well below his own qualifying offer, with some analytics sites projecting a contract closer to $2 million a year given his recent output and durability concerns. That raises the real possibility that going to an actual hearing could backfire. This means the Habs are in a good spot to negotiate with leverage.

Whatever the outcome, it makes sense that Montreal would use a rarely issued two-way qualifying offer as a security blanket or a negotiating tool. It also makes sense that Dach doesn’t want to accept an offer that could see him in the minors.

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