Why Do Advanced Statistics Rank Elias Pettersson as so Valuable to the Vancouver Canucks?

If you are at all academically inclined and haven’t read Andrew Harris’ posts, they are a treat for the thinking– ok, the geeky – hockey fan. Today, he did an in-depth statistical analysis of why the Vancouver Canucks Elias Pettersson should be considered for the Hart Trophy as the most valuable player to his team.

In this post, although I won’t go that far here, Harris supports Pettersson for the Hart. I won’t go that far because I haven’t studied it that much, but I do share Harris’ belief that Pettersson is the most valuable player on the team. And, in this post, I will share some of the advanced statistics Harris uses to make his points.

The first thing to know is that, as Harris notes, he believes Pettersson’s on-ice contributions to the Canucks this season have fallen into the “hard to measure, yet extremely important” category.

Related: What Have the Vancouver Canucks Missed with Micheal Ferland Out?

Here’re some of Harris’ points:

Point One: Pettersson has “driven goals while on the ice” in ways that aren’t shown in goals and assist statistics. In fact, as Harris suggests, the advanced statistics suggest that Pettersson has sacrificed offensive opportunities when they “present a losing risk-reward” proposition relative to defensive consequences. As a result, Pettersson’s style of play does nothing for him personally in terms of points on the score sheet, but it adds a huge positive value to the team overall.

Point Two: Statistics suggest that Pettersson has drawn penalties and has made a series of important defensive contributions to the team.

Point Three: Pettersson’s total impact on the team has been exceedingly high. As a result, in Harris’ read of the statistics, Pettersson’s so much more valuable than his other Canucks’ teammate that he addresses that vague, but important, standard of “judged most valuable to his team.” That phrase is the very definition of what the Hart Trophy should embody.

What Harris’ Advanced Metrics Suggest

Harris’ review of what he calls the “advanced metrics” suggests that Pettersson had an unbelievable 2019-2020 season.

Advanced Metrics #1: The Relative Teammate (RelTM) Metric

The Relative Teammate (RelTM) adjusted metrics effectively isolate a player’s contributions by taking his on-ice scoring differential and subtracting his teammates’ scoring differential when looked at separately. Teammates are weighted by their TOI spent with the player. Specifically, Pettersson has played 78% of his five-on-five TOI with JT Miller, but only 17% with Jake Virtanen, so their non-Pettersson goal-differential results would be weighted accordingly.

Using this metric, Pettersson ranked third in the entire NHL in RelTM goal differential. The only other NHL players ahead of him were the Nashville Predators’ Roman Josi and the New York Rangers Artemi Panarin.

Advanced Metrics #2: Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM) Metric

That same ranking holds true when you look at statistics generated by EvolvingHockey on what they call Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM). I won’t explain those statistics, except to say that the statistic means what players impact on-ice events most significantly. Specifically, “how many goals does having Pettersson add above the NHL average?” and the results are divided offensively and defensively.

RAPM contributions suggest that Pettersson contributes offensively but does not give up opportunities on the defensive side of the ice. His differential puts him 11th by RAPM goals for, and 84th in goals against. The statistical point is that being strong offensively and good defensively is more valuable than excelling at one and failing at the other. Thus, that differential makes Pettersson such a great player.

RAPM organizes a player’s contributions into six components: even-strength offense, even-strength defense, power-play, penalty-kill, and penalties drawn/taken. Pettersson’s penalties drawn/taken component are a crucial contribution to the team’s success. In short, Pettersson is a penalty-drawing machine and that matters both statistically and in actual wins.

Advanced Metrics #3: Goals Above Replacement (GAR) Metric

Measuring Goals Above Replacement (GAR) helps analysts understand how Pettersson’s contributions came about. In this metric, goals are measured relative to a “replacement level player,” which effectively means a player who can be acquired at no cost.

According to the Goals Above Replacement (GAR) statistic, Pettersson was actually the second-best player in the entire NHL this season, behind only New York Rangers winger Artemi Panarin. However, the two players are close. Panarin ranks ahead offensively, and Pettersson is ahead defensively and on the power play. As noted earlier, Pettersson’s big contribution is penalties.

Related: Vancouver Canucks’ Jacob Markstrom Mugged by the NHL’s Power Rankings

Where Do These Statistics Rank Pettersson?

Although I am offering only a small part of the analysis Harris offers and, if you are interested you can go to his much fuller post, Harris concludes that Pettersson’s impact on the success of the Canucks is already likely to be more significant than the impact of players on more successful teams in terms of wins and loses.

And that, for him is the very definition of what it means to win the Hart Trophy. Because, as the NHL has deemed, the Hart Trophy is awarded annually to the “player judged most valuable to his team” in the National Hockey League.