NHL Draft Lottery Could Create Nightmare Scenario for Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs have now dropped their eighth straight game, with their last win coming on February 3—a 5–2 victory over the Edmonton Oilers. As frustrating as the recent stretch has been, the slide could help Toronto’s chances of reclaiming its first-round pick if that has become the team’s new priority. But if Toronto doesn’t effectively tank into the bottom five, things get ugly.

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This discourse goes back to last year’s deadline when the Leafs traded for Bruins right-handed defenceman Brandon Carlo. The return was a Top-5 Protected 2026 first-round pick, a fourth-round pick in 2025, and forward Fraser Minten.

The return already looked questionable with Fraser Minten enjoying a breakout season, and the deal appears even worse when the 2026 first-round pick is factored in. At the time of the trade, however, it didn’t seem like a major concern. The Toronto Maple Leafs were sitting atop the division, and giving up what was expected to be a late first-round pick felt like a necessary price to pay for a legitimate Stanley Cup run.

Fast forward to now, and the situation looks very different. The Leafs are one of the league’s worst-struggling teams and currently sit in the bottom ten of the standings. That top-five protected 2026 first-round pick now carries far more significance than it once did. With Toronto playing its worst hockey of the season and inching closer to the bottom five, the nightmare scenario is starting to come into focus.

Maple Leafs Fans, Draft Lottery Could Get Scary

The current projected Top 5, according to DailyFace Off, includes Ivar Stenberg, LW (Frolunda), Gavin McKenna, LW (Penn State University), Keaton Verhoeff, RHD (University of North Dakota), Chase Reid, RHD (Soo Greyhounds), and Alberts Šmits, LHD (Jukurit). Getting to draft one of those players could be a game-changer. Watching the Bruins pick one would be a disaster.

The best place for the Toronto Maple Leafs to finish this season is ideally dead last or very close to it. The Leafs are five points up on 5th-last St. Louis Blues; realistically, they can make it at most down to 4th-last in the standings. 4th or 5th in the lottery standings is right in the sweet spot of a Leafs fan’s nightmare scenario.

As an example, let’s say the team finishes 5th-to-last in the standings and has an 8.5% chance at the first overall pick. That seems good, right?

But then you remember it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs, and there is also the possibility that if any of the teams below them win the draft lottery, Toronto can drop out of the top 5 and lose their pick to the Bruins. Losing the first in heartbreaking fashion in front of the world would be the perfect way to sum up this iteration of the team.

So, for this scenario to stay just a nightmare, and not become a reality, the Leafs need to lose their way to the bottom three (at worst, bottom four) in the standings. But that will be a tough task, so the draft lottery might be the only stress that Leafs fans will have this summer. The downside to all of this is a worse record and lower morale short-term, leading to questions about the future of some of the team’s top players.

On June 26, 2026, Leafs fans can ready to take a couple of deep breaths and watch the drama of the draft lottery unfold.

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