Maple Leafs’ Draft Pick ‘Conundrum” Exposes Full Rebuild Flaw

Beyond the reality that Auston Matthews isn’t likely to jump on board with a Toronto Maple Leafs rebuild plan, there is another flaw in any theory suggesting the Leafs tear it down this summer and start fresh with draft picks to spearhead a rebuild. The Maple Leafs simply won’t have the necessary draft capital.

Mike Johnston of TSN and The NHL Network walked fans through his take on the Leafs’ current situation. He pointed out a serious flaw in any theory that the Leafs should pursue a full rebuild rather than a retool.

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When it came to Matthews, Johnston noted of a rebuild, “You probably wouldn’t sign up for that, because you’re playing yourself out of your prime window to win. That’s what he’s waiting to see now. So I get everything he said — totally appropriate. I would have been shocked if he said anything different.”

What about when the GM and President are in place?

“Now, what happens next year?,” Johnston asked. He then noted, “This is my take on the Toronto Maple Leafs. They have this draft-pick conundrum. They finished fifth-last in the NHL this year, and their first-round pick was traded to the Boston Bruins. It’s top-five protected, so if the lottery goes according to script — or they win it — they’ll keep that pick, which is great.”

However, there’s still a problem if Toronto is embracing the idea of using that top-five pick to kickstart a full rebuild.

“But that would make next year’s pick slide to Boston unprotected, and the following year’s pick slide to Philadelphia unprotected. Because of where they are, if they finish in the bottom five, it almost forces them to retool, not rebuild.”

The Maple Leafs Can’t Rebuild Without Multiple First-Round Picks

Johnston correctly pointed out, “You can’t say, ‘OK, we’re going to pick fourth overall, strip it down, trade Auston, trade Willy, trade everyone,’ because the whole point of that is to build with picks — and they don’t own those picks. You can’t rebuild without first-rounders. Imagine finishing bottom three and saying, ‘Here you go, Boston, take a top-three pick.’ You just can’t do that.”

So where they are dictates a retool. I think that means shoring up the defense. They’ll have a lot of cap space, which is rare for Toronto. They probably need two or three defensemen. They need Kristen Ave to be healthy, and likely another player down the middle to help John Tavares, who had a great year.

Where do they get that from? Cap space, and likely trades. I think they’ll look at moving Morgan Rielly as well. He’s been there forever — one of the all-time great offensive defensemen in Leafs history — but that might be the path they have to take.

I don’t think they have a lot of choices here. It’s not about picking a great option — it’s about choosing the least bad one.”

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