Connect with us

Edmonton Oilers

Breaking Down McDavid’s Odds to Hit 100 Points in 2020-21

Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid was at it again versus the Winnipeg Jets on Monday night, notching his 10th career hat-trick all while adding an assist to go with it. The 24-year-old is scoring at a pace we haven’t seen in the NHL for a long, long time. As of right now, he has 81 points in 46 games which begs the question, can he get to 100?

With how good McDavid has been since entering the league, hitting 100-points in a season feels like a guarantee for him. However, this season was different given the fact that it was shortened to just 56 games. Despite that, the Oilers captain somehow still has a shot at hitting that mark with just 10 games to go, as he would need 19 points over that span to achieve what just a few months ago would have seemed impossible.

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers retro jersey

Getting 19 points in his remaining 10 games would mean McDavid would have to score at a 1.9 points per game (ppg) pace. That is higher than the 1.76 ppg he has averaged so far this year, but with what he has shown us through his tremendous career doesn’t seem impossible. Unfortunately for both him and the Oilers, they have no games remaining against the Ottawa Senators this season. McDavid torched the Sens for 21 points in just nine games, while his team went undefeated in all of those contests.

Related: Hellebuyck Loss to Oilers Example of Goaltending Karma

Instead, their remaining schedule has them playing the Vancouver Canucks five more times, both the Calgary Flames and Montreal Canadiens two more times, and the Jets just once more. To understand how likely hitting 100-points is, we have to take a look at how McDavid has fared against those four teams this season.

Lighting Up the Jets

The next game McDavid and the Oilers play will come against the Jets, which could result in more chatter of him reaching the century point mark once the game has finished. Out of the four teams the Oilers have left to play, he has been most successful against Winnipeg with 19 points in 8 games for a 2.38 ppg pace.

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers 500 points
Connor McDavid recorded his 500th career point against the Jets earlier this season

All of McDavid’s games against the Jets this season have resulted in multi-point outings, with one meeting just over a month ago saw him record three points and of course there was last night’s four-point outburst. Winnipeg has seemingly had no answer for him so far this season, and given that it is a fairly significant sample size, it seems safe to say we can expect more of the same in their final match of the season.

Torching the Flames

After the Jets comes a game against the Flames, who McDavid has had his next best success rate against. In eight games versus Calgary this season, he has 15 points, which translates to 1.88 ppg. They have done a slightly better job at shutting him down, as they were able to hold him without a point in two of those eight games. Though that doesn’t sound like much of a feat, it is more so credit to just how elite of a player he is.

What is interesting however is that McDavid tied a season high with five points against the Flames in a blowout 7-1 win back on February 20. With the Flames having lost a crucial game to the Montreal Canadiens on Monday night, you have to wonder what their desire level to play out the rest of the season will be given that their chances of a playoff berth are almost zero now. If they come out lacking intensity in their final meeting against the Oilers, McDavid could easily have another huge night similar to the one back in February.

Limited Action Versus Canucks

This one is a little bit trickier, given that the Oilers have only played against Vancouver five times this season. With their unfortunate COVID-19 situation a few weeks ago, the Canucks were forced to postpone a number of their games which has resulted in them playing a ton to finish out the season. While this is tough and frankly unfair for them, it could be good news for McDavid who will be going against a team that likely has little to no gas in the tank given how many games they will be playing in such a short span.

Connor McDavid (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)

To this point, McDavid has eight points in his five games against the Canucks for a 1.6 ppg pace. In those five games, he was held to one or less points on three occasions, but was able to put up four in their second meeting of the season. How he will do against them in their five remaining games is tough to say for a number of different reasons, one being the relatively small sample size to this point. Another reason is that while it doesn’t seem likely, Vancouver is still somewhat in the playoff hunt. Though they trail the Habs by 10 points, they have five games in hand. Depending where they sit in the playoff race by the time the Oilers play them on May 3 could play a huge factor into how many points McDavid posts against them.

Human Against the Habs

If there is a team who could rain on the parade here, it is the Canadiens. While McDavid hasn’t played poorly against them this season, he hasn’t been his superhuman self, with just eight points in seven games. The Habs have done a good job at shutting not just him down, but the Oilers as a whole. In the eight games they have faced off against one another, McDavid has been held pointless three times.

The good news here for anyone who is wanting to see McDavid get to 100 is that the Canadiens have been struggling as of late. During their struggles, the Oilers have played them twice, and McDavid has put up three points in both of those contests. If they aren’t able to get things together by the time the Oilers get ready to play them on May 10, he may be able to do more of the same.


Tough Task at Hand

There is no secret that while this certainly isn’t out of reach, it will not be easy to accomplish. Overall, the four teams McDavid and the Oilers have left to play they have played against a combined 28 times this season. In those 28 contests, he has 50 points. While that comes to an incredible rate of 1.79, it would fall shy of what he needs over his final 10 to get to 100.

This is a race that will either cool down or heat up in a hurry. If he were to be held pointless in his next outing, it would feel almost impossible to get to 100. However, if he were to have another big night similar to Monday, it would make it feel like this could really happen. Regardless of whether or not he gets there however, this is simply incredible to watch night in and night out. This is one of the best seasons of all time from a player who will go down in history as one of the best of all time. Oilers fans should feel extremely lucky.

Next: The 8 Best Current Player Contracts in the NHL

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Pingback: Canadiens Have Run into Potential Roster Dilemma, Namely with Caufield

  2. Pingback: Oilers Beat Jets, McDavid Reaches 4 Incredible Feats in Win » 观看直播

  3. Pingback: Broberg Leaving Sweden, Looking to Join Edmonton Oilers

  4. Pingback: Philip Broberg Leaving Sweden, Looking to Join Edmonton Oilers » 观看直播

Leave a Reply

More News

Discover more from NHL Trade Talk

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading