Edmonton Oilers
Scribe: Connor McDavid Could Cost Oilers $20 Million Per Season
One scribe is arguing that Connor McDavid’s next deal could exceed $20 million per season. Can the Oilers afford that and is it fair value?
With the NHL’s salary cap projected to rise significantly over the next three seasons, speculation is already swirling about what Connor McDavid’s next contract could look like. According to Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic, McDavid’s upcoming deal with the Oilers—set to begin in 2026-27 (if he extends)—could come in around $20 million.
“A league-max deal is 20 percent of the cap, and during the 2026-27 season that amounts to $20.8 million,” Luszczyszyn writes. “According to my model, McDavid is currently the only player in the league projected to be worth 20 percent of the cap or more.”
Can Oilers Afford to Give McDavid $20 Million Per Season?
McDavid’s current contract, which carries a $12.5 million cap hit, expires in 2026. It’s clear he’ll be getting a raise, and the timing of his new deal aligns well with the rising salary cap. However, with the cap projected to surpass $100 million for the first time, both sides have to find the right balance.
Given that he is the NHL’s undisputed best player, and he deserves to be paid as such, it’s also fair to argue that even at $20 million, he won’t stay the league’s top-paid player for long. What’s to say that an elite player coming up for a contract extension in three seasons won’t get more when the cap is already at $113 million?
Luszczyszyn argues that it’s entirely possible he becomes the league’s first $20 million player. “McDavid would be well worth it. On the conservative side, he’s worth $21.8 million over eight seasons. On the aggressive side, his average value comes out to $23.5 million,” he writes.
From an Edmonton Oilers perspective, a contract of that magnitude will undoubtedly shape how they build around him. Already locked into a deal with Leon Draisaitl at $14 million per season, that could be $34 million tied up in two players. Add in over $9 million for Darnell Nurse and whatever Evan Bouchard is going to get on an extension, and the cap room starts to disappear quickly.
However, “Even a deal as high as $20 million leaves room to add around McDavid, especially as it ages,” Luszczyszyn notes.
If Edmonton can manage its long-term cap properly, locking in McDavid to anything south of $20 million could be considered a real win.
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