Are the Senators the NHL’s Next Big Second-Half Playoff Surge?

If you just glance at the standings, the Ottawa Senators don’t jump out as a team with a playoff path. They’re buried behind a pile of Atlantic teams that have been on heaters since December, they don’t have the benefit of a division race like some Metro clubs, and the goaltending has been shaky enough to sink a couple of months’ worth of good efforts.

But here’s the twist: the numbers under the hood say something completely different. And that’s why people around the league — including Elliotte Friedman — keep circling back to Ottawa as a team that could rise fast if they simply get average goaltending.

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The Senators’ Record Doesn’t Match the Team’s Ability

Friedman compared Ottawa’s situation to the 2015 Blue Jays, the year Toronto traded for David Price. Back then, Alex Anthopoulos talked about run differential as the reason he believed the team was better than its record. The numbers predicted a surge — and he was right.

Ottawa is basically that team right now.

Their underlying stats are strong across the board: possession, expected goals, shot quality, scoring chances… they’re winning the run-differential battle of hockey. The issue is they’ve been undone by a simple, frustrating fact: they haven’t been getting saves.

When do they get them? They win. It’s as simple as that.

The Senators Have Already Proven They Can Beat Good Teams

This isn’t a team that just pads its numbers against weak opponents. Ottawa has hammered some legitimately strong clubs this season. They ran Vegas out of the rink. They humbled Colorado. And most recently, they completely controlled Pittsburgh. As Friedman noted, the winning goal (Stützle–Tkachuk–Giroux magic) looked like a pure skill clinic.

When Ottawa gets even baseline goaltending, its talent shines through.

Strength of the Senators’ Schedule Won’t Sink Them

Ottawa’s remaining schedule is tough, and the Atlantic Division hasn’t made things easy. Since early December, basically every team not named Toronto or Montreal has been rolling. Ottawa also plays a ton of these teams down the stretch.

That’s a problem… but it’s also an opportunity. Beat the teams you’re chasing, and the math closes quickly. But Ottawa plays a style that actually supports winning. They control games. They drive play. They create more than they give up. That’s what contenders do — even if the standings don’t show it yet.

So Can the Senators Actually Make the Postseason?

The Senators can make the postseason. But it’s not going to be easy. Ottawa’s most realistic path is the wild card, and the teams they’re chasing are playing well. But the foundation is there. The Senators have the underlying numbers, a sustainable style of play, real top-end talent, and a track record of hanging with elite teams — all ingredients you’d expect from a group capable of pushing its way into the playoffs.

If the goaltending stabilizes — even slightly — Ottawa is absolutely the kind of team that can rip off a serious run. And that’s why people keep saying it: the Senators are a lot better than their record. And if the breaks finally go their way, they’re one of the few teams outside the picture that could storm their way in.

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