An $18M Gamble That Could Pay Off Big for Edmonton

The Edmonton Oilers are facing a pivotal decision in goal — one that could define their playoff strategy for 2026 and potentially set them up in the years to come. Stuart Skinner, who has quietly backstopped the team to back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances, is entering the final season of his $2.6 million deal. And with the salary cap projected to climb significantly, the time to strike might be now.

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This argument won’t go over well with many Oilers fans. Specifically, those who believe Edmonton needs an upgrade in goal aren’t going to like the idea of investing in Skinner for a sizeable amount of money. Frankly, it’s hard to blame those skeptics; Skinner’s numbers won’t land him in the Vezina conversation. That said, his consistency has been good enough to keep Edmonton in contention, and if he has a solid 2025-26 season, you can bet the Oilers are going to wind up paying to keep him.

When the Oilers’ defense holds up, Skinner performs as well as most mid-tier starters across the league. Under new goalie coach Peter Aubry, there’s optimism that Skinner could add another layer to his game — and if that happens, his price tag could soar.

Goalie Deals, Like What’s Coming For Skinner, Aren’t Getting Cheaper

League-wide trends suggest goalie deals aren’t getting cheaper. Locking Skinner in for something in the range of three years at $6 million per season could give the Oilers cost certainty and valuable cap flexibility. Comparable netminders like Logan Thompson, Tristan Jarry, and Darcy Kuemper already sit in that range, and Edmonton could find itself with a bargain if Skinner continues to grow. Lukas Dostal just signed on with the Ducks for five more years at $6.5 million per season, in what many are calling a bargain extension.

The benefit isn’t just about saving money. A team-friendly deal keeps Skinner movable if things go sideways.

Waiting comes with risk. A breakout season from Skinner would make negotiations far more expensive — especially in a market where quality goaltending is scarce. For a team operating in a tight Cup window, overpaying later could mean losing depth elsewhere.

Is Skinner the Long-Term Answer Or Yesterday’s News?

If the Oilers aren’t sold on Skinner, investing further in him isn’t the right play. But, if they believe he’s got the tools to rebound, buying low (or at least, lower) isn’t the worst idea. He’s experienced, and Edmonton has taken the time and shown patience to see him flourish. “I think going through it the first time, you go through that experience in the summer and then you realize the things you did well and the things you didn’t do well,” Skinner said to NHL.com’s Derek Van Diest. “So going through it a second time, but being able to say you went through this does help you get over it quicker, just because you have to go back into training and do it all over again.”

Maybe the lows have shown themselves, and the highs could be around the corner.

Moreover, one could argue the decision is less about whether Skinner is the long-term answer in net and more about innovative asset management. Betting on him now is a calculated gamble that could pay off in a big way, especially if Edmonton believes their championship core can win with steady — if not spectacular — play between the pipes.

For general manager Stan Bowman, this isn’t just about a contract; it’s about strategy. Move early, and the Oilers could secure the cost certainty they need to keep their stars together. If Skinner remains average, a $6 million goaltender is potentially a tough sell, but not an impossible one.

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