NHL Analyst with Strong Case Oilers’ Bouchard is Unfair Scapegoat

Hockey Analyst for the NHL Network and Director of Analytics & Insights at Sportlogiq made a case on Thursday that critics of Edmonton Oilers’ defenseman Evan Bouchard should take a closer look at the numbers before judging him too harshly. Kelly pointed to some interesting numbers to make a case that Bouchard might be the scapegoat for the wrong reasons, even if his game isn’t perfect.

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The topic of Bouchard’s game came up when Oilers’ GM Stan Bowman went to bat for his player. He said, “…Bouchard does get a lot of criticism, I think unfairly so. He’s a great player. He really is a big part of our team.” He then added:

“He’s very effective, and I think sometimes when, for whatever reason, certain players – everyone makes mistakes, but sometimes if your mistakes get spotlighted for whatever reason, then maybe there’s more attention given to it. But he’s played well. He’s very good at complimenting our best players. So that’s an important role.”

So, is Bouchard as good as Bowman says or as bad as some fans believe?

Bouchard Doesn’t Actually Turn the Puck Over Too Much for the Oilers

The eye test for a typical fan who has harped on Bouchard recently tells a different story than the numbers do. Kelly writes, “Two things I hear often with Bouchard… He turns the puck over too much. His turnovers are bad ones. The first, isn’t really true.”

He adds:

“The NHL has him with 100 giveaways, 2nd to MacKenzie Weegar. He also has the puck a lot, and most of the league leaders in giveaways are high-end possession players. Karlsson (3rd), Kucherov (4th), MacKinnon (8th), Theodore (9th), Werenski (12th) etc. Bouchard has turned it over on just over 11% of his total possessions, the 6th lowest turnover rate among all defencemen.”

In other words, with the amount of time that Bouchard has the puck on his stick, his ratio of turnovers to solid plays is actually quite good.

Bouchard’s Turnovers Aren’t as Dangerous as One Might Think

Kelly did admit there is more truth to the argument that Bouchard’s turnovers are brutal when they happen and lead to direct scoring chances again. Still, it’s not as bad as fans think. Kelly argues that it’s “not close to the point where I would label him a liability, as some have.”

He explained:

“The average XG value of shot attempts against as a result of his turnovers is just under 6.0. That puts him middle of the pack in the league. All things being equal, we could expect Edmonton to have allowed 6 or 7 goals against as a result of Bouchard turnovers this season. They’ve allowed 9. Hedman, McAvoy, Theodore, Toews are a few D with higher average XGA on average.”

Kelly knows that Bouchard isn’t perfect or elite when it comes to his puck management skills, but says Bouchard is far from a defensive liability. He adds that the rest of his game more than makes up for any shortcomings.

“Not for nothing, Bouchard plays more minutes than any defenceman on the Oilers, a team which ranks 4th in the league in XGA / 60 at 5v5,” Kelly says in closing.

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