Florida Panthers

Lightning Pegged as Favorites Over Panthers in Battle of Florida

The defending Stanley Cup Champions aren’t favorites as the Florida Panthers take on the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1. Why?

by
Jim Parsons
April 18, 2025

The Battle of Florida is set to be one of the most compelling first-round matchups of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That said, if you ask those around the league, the edge goes to the Tampa Bay Lightning, not the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. This despite the betting odds in Florida’s favor.

In a recent survey conducted by The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, NHL executives and coaches were split on the opening-round Battle of Florida. But when the final tally came in—excluding one non-definitive vote—it was Tampa Bay who earned the slight 7-5 edge in projected series winners.

<a rel= — Andrei Vasilevskiy vs Sergei Bobrovsky

“Tampa gets the edge in net,” said one executive, pointing to Andrei Vasilevskiy’s pedigree as a difference-maker. Another added that Tampa’s stars have found their groove again. “Their big boys just seem to have their mojo and hunger back.”

Another cited the Panthers’ battle fatigue after two deep playoff runs, including last year’s Cup win, and concerns about injuries to key players like Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad. If Tkachuk isn’t fully healed and Aleksander Barkov isn’t 100%, that makes all the difference in the world.

Still, Florida was far from being overlooked. Several coaches and execs emphasized the Panthers’ depth, playoff experience, and ability to play a relentless, pressure-heavy game, especially if Tkachuk returns at full strength. Seth Jones was pegged as a nice addition with Ekblad out, and the Panthers are seen as a team potentially saving their best stuff for the games that matter.

Execs Like the Lightning’s Bounce-Back Season

Despite how evenly the picks panned out, what stood out was how much the execs and coaches seemed to value Tampa’s bounce-back season. They are healthy, cohesive, and their additions, including Jake Guentzel, ultimately swayed more insiders.

“This is a conference finals-caliber series,” said one executive. “But Tampa has home ice, the best goalie in the East, and a team that looks ready to go on a run again.”

With the series expected to be physical, fast, and fiercely competitive, the Lightning are the slight favorites to win what could be the most entertaining showdown of Round 1. One coach said, “Great series with a great rivalry and two teams with Stanley Cup experience… Will be a battle.”

Who do you have in this series?

Next: Battle of Ontario: Keys to Maple Leafs vs. Senators Playoff Series