Battle of Ontario: Keys to Maple Leafs vs. Senators Playoff Series

The Battle of Ontario returns after a 20-year gap as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators meet in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, starting Sunday night. For the first time in the Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner era, the Leafs appear fully equipped for a deep run. Healthier, deeper, and stronger on the back end, Toronto enters the series as the favorite. But a motivated Senators squad led by a returning Brady Tkachuk has a lot to play for.

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How Will Brady Tkachuk Impact the Series?

One of the biggest storylines heading into the series is the return of Brady Tkachuk. The Senators’ captain hasn’t played since March 30 but is back skating on the top line and power play unit. He’ll play Thursday night versus the Carolina Hurricanes, and if he’s healthy going into Round 1, his physical presence and leadership could be something the Leafs don’t have an answer for.

When asked about his motivation to play in his first-ever playoff series, he responded, “It’s going to take this whole city.” Tkachuk talked about the atmosphere at the Canadian Tire Centre and noted, “All the support, all the passion that we thrive off of.”

Tkachuk will be coming in full steam. The trick is to keep himself in check and not get too carried away, to the point where it actually hurts the Senators.

Perhaps the closest thing Toronto has to a Tkachuk is Matthew Knies. Head coach Craig Berube praised the forward’s development and sees him as someone built for playoff hockey. Knies brings size, speed, and a knack for timely plays—exactly what the Leafs will need in a hard-nosed series.

The Maple Leafs Are Deeper Than Last Season

The Leafs, meanwhile, have made significant improvements since last year’s early exit. Gone are Ilya Samsonov, Timothy Liljegren, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Joel Edmundson from Game 1 of 2024. In their place? Anthony Stolarz, Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson—a clear upgrade on paper and perhaps their most playoff-ready core in recent memory.

This team is better built for the playoffs and that should matter as the Leafs try to get out of the first and second round finally.

Goaltending for the Maple Leafs

Stolarz is a key X-factor. He’s been excellent in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal. While he’s never started a postseason game, he offers a steady presence with a high floor. The debate between Stolarz and Joseph Woll is an interesting one because they are arguments for both as the starter.

Woll can be dynamic and perhaps has a higher ceiling, but Toronto looks poised to go with the safer option of Stolarz in Game 1. The question is, can they outplay former Vezina Trophy-winner Linus Ullmark? His career playoff numbers are not wonderful. In 10 games played, he has a record of three wins and six losses. His goals-against average is 3.59, with a save percentage of .887%.

Who Has the Edge in the Series?

Despite Toronto’s edge in experience, health, and goaltending, Ottawa has nothing to lose. Playing with house money and led by a fully recharged Tkachuk, the Senators could be dangerous if they catch the Leafs off guard.

Next: 4 Keys to First-Round Series for the Oilers vs. the Kings