Toronto Maple Leafs

Knies’ Shooting Percentage: Skill or Luck? A Deeper Look

Sometimes hockey analysts say things without thinking. Why is the Maple leafs Matthew Knies shooting percentage likely to stay high?

by
Old Prof
December 15, 2024

Matthew Knies broke a six-game goal drought on Saturday night, scoring a crucial goal early in the third period to tie the game 2-2 against the Detroit Red Wings. His Maple Leafs eventually lost the game by a score of 4-2. Knies’ goal—a perfectly timed tip-in off a Mitch Marner shot—showcased his talent for scorign in high-danger areas. For a player like Knies, who thrives on redirecting pucks and creating chaos in front of the net, traditional critiques about elevated shooting percentages may not apply.

The Unique Nature of Knies’ Goals

Knies’ current shooting percentage stands at 22.9%, a significant jump from the 13.0% he posted during his rookie season. This morning, I read a hockey critics argue this is unsustainable and likely to regress. However, that’s something hockey critics say without thinking. I don’t believe it’s true for Knies if you understand how his game is developing.

Last season, as a rookie, he was learning where he fit on the team. This season, he’s developing his game. It’s no surprise, then, that he’s figured out what he needs to do to score. Specifically, it’s important to consider the type of goals Knies scores. Unlike players who rely on long-range shots or clean looks from the slot, Knies operates primarily around the crease.

Net-front players like Knies are measured differently when it comes to shooting metrics. For example, a clean shot from a distance that misses the net still counts as a shot attempt. However, it doesn’t count as a shot when a player tips a puck wide or redirects it off-target from close range. This means that Knies’ shooting percentage for the Maple Leafs will be higher because many of his scoring attempts either result in goals or don’t register as shots.

Why Knies’ Scoring Is Sustainable

Knies’s ability to maintain a high shooting percentage stems from his style of play. Players who score on deflections, rebounds, and scrappy net-front battles rely on more than luck—they hone specific skills like hand-eye coordination, positioning, and anticipation.

This is a hallmark of players like Joe Pavelski, who has built a career on tipping pucks past goaltenders and winning battles in tight areas. Knies, at just 21 years old, is already showing signs of mastering this problematic art. His timing and instincts for redirecting pucks are advanced for his age, and his chemistry with elite playmakers like Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews only increases his scoring opportunities.

The Critics May Need to Adjust Their View

Critics who expect the Maple Leafs Knies’ shooting percentage to regress are applying a blanket rule to players whose game doesn’t fit conventional molds. For net-front players, the nature of their scoring chances inherently inflates their shooting percentages. Instead of declining sharply, Knies’ percentage may stabilize at a level higher than average forwards.

Knies is currently on pace for a 30-goal, 50-point season—an impressive projection for a sophomore player. His knack for scoring key goals, like the one against Detroit, demonstrates his ability to thrive under pressure and in critical moments. Rather than focusing on a possible regression, it might be more productive to acknowledge Knies’ unique skill set and how it complements the Maple Leafs’ offense.

The Bottom Line: Knies Shooting Percentage Is No Fluke

Knies’ high shooting percentage isn’t a fluke—it’s a reflection of his game. His ability to battle in front of the net and capitalize on scoring chances makes him a valuable asset to the Maple Leafs. While traditional metrics may predict a decline, Knies’ role and style suggest he could continue to defy those expectations. For Toronto, that’s a reason to be optimistic about their young star’s future.