Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi: The Next Ethan Bear Or Ryan Strome?

There’s a lot of chatter in Edmonton about the Oilers moving on from Jesse Puljujarvi this offseason. Recent reports suggest that both the team and the player have discussed things and that a separation might be best. To some, it’s incredibly ludicrous that the Oilers would give up on a player with so much upside and one that simply hasn’t put it all together yet. For others, this is about waiting too long and finally admitting that maybe Puljujarvi isn’t the real deal.

Related: NHL Trade Talk Podcast: Ep. 1 — Getting Ready for the 2022 NHL Draft

Numbers guys love him. They’ll quote his offensive metrics and contend his effect on each center is a huge positive. Some quote his defensive stats and argue that a goal saved is as valued as a goal scored and that few players were as good at stopping goals as Puljujarvi.

At the end of the day, it wouldn’t cost the Oilers much to qualify the player at $1.4 million, but he might seek arbitration and an offer sheet might (while unlikely) come into play. The Oilers don’t want to and can’t afford to overpay for him and they’re not totally sure he’s part of the long-term solution.

The question now is, what is Puljujarvi? Is he more likely to turn into someone like Ryan Strome or Ethan Bear? The Oilers traded both of these players and the end result of both trades were vastly different.

The Ryan Strome Comparison

The Ryan Strome trade might go down as one of the worst trades in recent Oilers history. A well-liked member of the team, Strome was moved out for Ryan Spooner and Spooner did as little as an Oiler could have done after arriving. Strome, however, went on to the Rangers where he had multiple 50-plus point seasons and he’s about to do quite well for himself in free agency. What the Oilers don’t want to do is give up on Puljujarvi and see him blossom into the player many knew he could be, but Edmonton was simply too impatient. That’s what happened with Strome.

Right now, insiders and fans are comparing Puljujarvi to Valeri Nichushkin, and that might be a fairer comparison. For the sake of relating Puljujarvi to the Oilers’ decisions of the past, Strome is being brought up because the Oilers have already been through this. They know what it’s like to move a player for a lousy return and get bitten by it. It’s very possible they do the same with Puljujarvi.

If the Oilers trade Jesse, they won’t get a fair return. If another team comes calling with an offer sheet, the Oilers will likely take the pick and it too probably won’t be fair value. That’s perhaps a bigger fear for some Oilers fans than actually keeping Jesse — that is, the franchise making another terrible trade and having egg on their face for doing so.

The Ethan Bear Comparison

At the time Bear was being sent out of town, Jonathan Willis of The Athletic wrote:

It’s funny, when I write about how much the Jeff Petry trade hurt the Oilers I get accused of beating a dead horse. But when I talk about how silly it would be to trade Ethan Bear, I end up having the same ‘he’s not good enough’ discussions I did when Petry was in Edmonton.

He wrote this because he felt the Oilers had made a terrible mistake moving on from defenseman Jeff Petry and he felt the Oilers were repeating their mistake by doing the same with Bear. Bear showed poorly in the 2021 playoffs against the Winnipeg Jets and was subsequently run out of town by a number of fans. Some in Edmonton were sure he’d be a top-four defenseman on another team, while others believed the Oilers were too fond of the player to see the truth about his potential and he needed to be moved out. It turned out that Bear didn’t amount to much in Carolina and they too have told him to look around this offseason for another team that might believe he has more value to their franchise than the Hurricanes do.

Bear could still turn into a player, but those who tried to die on the hill that said it was a huge mistake to ship Bear out for Warren Foegele wound up being wrong. Even today though, there are still numbers guys crunching the stats and suggesting Bear didn’t get a fair shake in Edmonton. They refuse to admit that Bear might not be the player their numbers all told them he’d be.

Is Puljujarvi Bear or Strome?

If the Oilers keep Puljujarvi, this is all a moot point. But, recent rumblings suggest it’s more likely both sides move on. When that happens, what does Puljujarvi turn into? Does he become a player that shows well and proves it was a mistake to bail so early? Or, does he have a lot of fans who are upset he’s leaving, but doesn’t actually become the big-time star many thought he’d be?

Listen to Episode 1 of The NHL Trade Talk Podcast Below: