Maple Leafs: What If Marner Agreed to the Rantanen Trade?

Every season has a few “almosts” that just linger. For the Maple Leafs, one of them showed up right around the 2025 trade deadline, when Mikko Rantanen was suddenly in play, and Mitch Marner’s name got pulled into a conversation nobody really wanted to have.

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Marner had the best season of his career by putting up 102 points. It was the kind of production you don’t move. And yet, it was also the most awkward season he’s ever had in Toronto. In the final year of his deal, there was clarity on his future.

Then, Colorado suddenly put Rantanen on the market. He was a winger with a Stanley Cup ring, and Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving did what any responsible GM would: he called the Avs.

Rumour Was That a Maple Leafs-Avalanche Deal Could Have Been

The Maple Leafs had reportedly put together a three-team framework, with Rantanen open to extending in Toronto. The Avalanche wanted Marner in return. All Marner would need to do is waive his no-trade clause. He didn’t.

And that’s where the what-if starts to get interesting. Marner was well within his rights. New baby on the way. Life rooted in Toronto. No obligation to solve the team’s cap math at the expense of his family. Anyone pretending otherwise isn’t being honest.

What If Rantanen Had Landed and Extended in Toronto?

Had Rantanen arrived in Toronto, the Maple Leafs would’ve finally had what they’ve spent years circling: a playoff winger built for long nights. Heavy minutes, plenty of contact, and the offence doesn’t dry up. Sixty-three points in 48 games, north of 20 minutes a night — that’s not theory, that’s proof. He dines on the power play, wins puck battles, and doesn’t disappear when games tighten up. He’s not subtle. He leans on you.

Now imagine that version of Rantanen dropped into Toronto’s lineup down the stretch. Matthews would draw the top defenders. Nylander would be flying on the weak side. Rantanen planted near the net, doing the unglamorous things that don’t always show up on highlight reels but absolutely show up in playoff series. Suddenly, the Maple Leafs’ first line wouldn’t just look skilled, it would be one of the best lines in the entire NHL.

Would the Maple Leafs Have Beaten Florida in the Second Round?

Would it have guaranteed a longer Stanley Cup run last season? Of course not. Hockey never hands out guarantees. But it would have changed the team. Less perimeter. Less waiting for the perfect play. More inevitability.

After Marner nixed the deal, the Maple Leafs pivoted to bring in Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo. Both are doing just fine with the Maple Leafs. Still, imagine Rantanen with the Blue and White, along with the two prospects who went the other way—Nikita Grebenkin (and a first-round pick in 2027) and Fraser Minten. Both youngsters would still be on the team. Both these youngsters would still be with the team.

No One Knows What This Season Would Have Looked Like

Who knows what last season looks like if Mikko Rantanen is wearing a Maple Leafs sweater instead of Marner? Maybe they get past Florida, maybe they don’t—but it’s hard to argue the team wouldn’t have been tougher with him. The thing with what-ifs is they don’t cash. They just hang around.

And now here the Maple Leafs are, a new season, different problems, and a team just trying to get itself into the postseason, with fans still wondering what might’ve been.

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