Loss to Predators Proves Oilers’ Current Formula Is Playing with Fire

The Edmonton Oilers continue to pick up points in the standings, but Tuesday’s 4–3 overtime loss to the Nashville Predators was another reminder that they aren’t playing their best hockey. The Oilers are too loose in certain areas, too sloppy in others, and too reliant on their top guys for the current formula to keep working as it has been so far this season.

No more was that evident than on the overtime goal against, where Connor McDavid tried to walk through three Predators, lost the puck, Evan Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl failed to get back and Tristan Jarry misplayed the final play when he tried to come out of the net and beat Roman Josi to the puck. It was a series of unforced errors that resulted in a loss.

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Still, by grabbing a point on the second night of a back-to-back, the Oilers extended their points streak to five games (3-0-2) and pulled into a tie for first place in the Pacific Division. On paper, that’s a positive result. It’s probably just enough to fool the Oilers into thinking they’re doing what they need to pace the division. Ultimately, failure to fix their mistakes will cost them.

Oilers Remain Too Top Heavy, Relying on Power Play

As was the case again, Edmonton relied heavily on its elite talent and the power play to stay competitive– Zach Hyman scored twice on the man advantage. Leon Draisaitl posted a goal and two assists, and Connor McDavid added two helpers to extend his career-long point streak to 20 games. Those guys are doing what they need to.

But, at five-on-five, Nashville controlled large stretches of play, generating far more quality chances off of Edmonton’s recurring mistakes. The Oilers finished with just 1.29 expected goals at even strength, compared to the Predators’ 2.72. “I think we could be better in back-to-backs, making simple plays,” Hyman said. “I thought we were too complicated and caused too many unforced errors. I thought Jars played great, and then the special teams were good.”

Head coach Kris Knoblauch also pointed to careless puck management and an overcomplicated approach. Turnovers from Andrew Mangiapane and Bouchard forced a returning Jarry to be excellent. He was only able to manage that for so long.

While the Oilers try to figure out their goaltending situation, they’re putting stress on whoever takes the net. Jarry wasn’t awful, but he couldn’t save the game. Edmonton hung him out to dry too often, and despite a few ten-bell saves, he couldn’t save them all.

The Oilers Need to Put a Streak Together

The Oilers are finding ways to collect points even when their game isn’t clean. That’s something good teams do. Great teams find a way to win a bunch of games in a row, something that has eluded the Oilers all season. If the power play cools or the stars have an off night, the odds of that happening and the Oilers distancing themselves from the rest of the division feels like a long shot.

The Oilers are winning — but they’re doing it with very little room to spare. And in some cases, like Tuesday, they aren’t quite getting the job done. As the trade deadline approaches, the question isn’t whether Edmonton needs help. It’s whether management believes this formula can hold up when the games matter most.

Next: Oilers Linked to Surprise Defensive Targets Ahead of Trade Deadline