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He’s Got the Record Now, So How High Can Auston Matthews Go?
Now that Auston Matthews owns the Maple Leafs’ goal record, how high can he realistically climb on the NHL’s all-time scoring list?
The Toronto Maple Leafs lost a 4–3 overtime game to the New York Islanders on Saturday, and in the short term, that’s the part that stings. Points matter right now, and Toronto doesn’t have many to spare. But every so often, a game leaves something behind that outlasts the result. This one did.
Auston Matthews Hit 20 and 421 on the Same Night
Auston Matthews scored his 20th goal of the season and the 421st of his career. That was the goal he needed to pass Mats Sundin as the leading goal scorer in Maple Leafs history. When you think of it, that’s a pretty amazing thought. The all-time goal-scoring leader of one of the Original Six franchises is only 28 years old.
Sundin’s name has been sitting on top for a long time, untouched, almost assumed to be permanent. Matthews didn’t just catch it — he stepped past it before turning 29. Now what for Matthews? How far can his goal-scoring prowess reach?
Now That Matthews Has Reached the Top, Things Have Changed
Once a player gets there, though, the conversation changes. The question stops being about the record he just broke and starts leaning forward instead. How high can Matthews’ goal-scoring go?
Matthews hit 421 goals in 664 games. That number matters more than it sounds like it should. Very few players in NHL history have scored that much that early, and fewer still did it while missing as much time as Matthews has over the years. Injuries, shortened seasons, weird schedules — all of it chipped away at totals that still ended up looking historic anyway.
The easy comparison is Alex Ovechkin. While that’s sort of fair, Ovechkin is a different kettle of fish than Matthews. Ovechkin had 422 goals through the same age range, in slightly more games. Matthews is right there. That doesn’t mean he becomes Ovechkin. Ovechkin is a physical phenomenon, though not in the modern, fitness-obsessed sense.
He has broken the usual rules about aging, durability, and volume. Most players don’t do that. Most can’t. He’s old-school in that, a throwback to the days when hockey players didn’t work out all year long and arrive in pristine shape.
Matthews Only Needs to Be Matthews to Become Special
But Matthews doesn’t need to be Ovechkin to end up somewhere special. He’s been scoring at a 50-goal pace for most of his career without the benefit of full seasons. Entering this year, he’d only played more than 70 games five times in nine seasons. Even so, he just keeps piling goals on. With better luck alone, he’d probably already be past the 500 goal marker.
From here, the math starts getting uncomfortable in a good way. Six hundred goals feels more like a checkpoint than a stretch. Seven hundred is very much in play if his health holds. And if his scoring rate only softens instead of collapsing as he ages, the numbers drift into places that usually feel reserved for all-time lists, not active players.
Matthews Isn’t Chasing Ghosts Just Yet
None of this needs to be rushed. Matthews isn’t chasing ghosts yet. He’s still busy winning games, carrying a team, and defining his own era in Toronto. Now that he owns the Maple Leafs’ all-time record, it’s fair to look ahead a little.
How high up the all-time NHL goal-scoring conversation can Matthews eventually go?
Related: Maple Leafs Are Playing Better — But Standings Tell Different Story
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