Gavin McKenna No Longer a Lock to Be No. 1 Pick in 2026 NHL Draft

Gavin McKenna has long been touted as the consensus best available prospect in the upcoming 2026 NHL draft and a potentially generational talent worth tanking for. His supreme skill set has drawn comparisons to some of the best wingers in the game, like Nikita Kucherov and prime Patrick Kane, and the production at such a young age has backed that up.

While he hasn’t all of a sudden lost his ability, things haven’t come as easily to start his college hockey career with the Penn State Nittany Lions, and that has created more of a debate over who will go first in June’s draft, according to prospect analyst Corey Pronman.

“After a less-than-stellar first month in his freshman season at Penn State, Gavin McKenna isn’t a lock to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft,” Pronman wrote.

“If the draft were held today, I still think he would go first, but the debate among NHL scouts and front offices over him would likely be far more intense than most observers imagined it would be in the summer. I’ve talked to seven NHL scouts who said they would have a different name at the one slot on their list. Ten scouts I’ve talked to argue he’s still clearly the guy, though, emphasizing his body of work over a dozen college games,” Pronman added.

The 17-year-old has tallied 15 points (four goals, 11 assists) while being a -7 rating through his first 14 games of the NCAA season. While that is still productive, it’s not quite up to the standard McKenna has set throughout his junior hockey days.

Who Could Surpass McKenna?

The question then becomes, who would leap ahead of McKenna should he not go first overall?

As Pronman mentioned, McKenna remains the clear top choice for many, but there is at least a conversation to be had about a few other prospects.

Those would be defensemen Keaton Verhoeff, 6-foot-5, 226-pound winger Ethan Belchetz, and Swedish center Ivar Stenberg, all of whom you could make a case belong in the same tier.

There remains plenty of hockey to be played this season to determine how the draft order will ultimately shake out, but given how far ahead McKenna appeared to be just months ago, it’s interesting to see that not everyone feels the same way in mid-November.

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