Did the Oilers Make a Mistake Choosing Jarry Over Binnington?

Talk around the Edmonton Oilers’ search for an upgrade in goal dominated discussions around the team for years. Jordan Binnington and Tristan Jarry were two of the most speculated-on options throughout the process, with Binnington having, quite frankly, been mentioned more often than Jarry.

Despite that, we know that GM Stan Bowman eventually zeroed in on the former Edmonton Oil King, sending Stuart Skinner, Brett Kulak, and a 2029 second-round pick in order to acquire Jarry and Samuel Poulin.

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We’re just over two months removed from the deal, and while the sample size remains small, a lot has transpired in that time — including some bumps in the road for the newest Oiler. Now add in Binnington once again stepping up on a big stage to begin the Olympics, and it becomes worth revisiting the decision — one Edmonton needs to pay off in the near future with Connor McDavid under contract and in his prime.

Tristan Jarry vs. Jordan Binnington 

The numbers haven’t been pretty for either goalie of late. Jarry has posted a 6-4-1 record across 10 starts as an Oiler, with a 3.64 goals-against average and an .870 save percentage to boot. Meanwhile, Binnington has had a rough season as a whole, reflected in his 8-17-6 record while sporting a 3.65 goals-against average and an .864 save percentage across those 30 starts.

It can’t be forgotten that Jarry did have a strong start to the year in Pittsburgh, which appeared to play a significant role in Edmonton choosing him over a struggling Binnington, who didn’t seem close to turning things around at the time. Cost of acquisition clearly factored in as well, and while we don’t know for certain, it’s reasonable to assume Blues GM Doug Armstrong may have been asking for more than what Bowman ultimately surrendered to land Jarry — which was a relatively sizeable package in its own right.

That alone can be enough to have swayed the decision, but in the end, what will matter most is performance in the biggest games and biggest moments — and that’s where the conversation shifts quickly.

Binnington’s resume in that area will always speak loudly. From backstopping the Blues to a Stanley Cup in 2018-19 to repeatedly elevating his play on the international stage, he has shown he’s built for the spotlight. His performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off reinforced that, and a strong start at the Olympics only adds to the narrative and truth that Binnington always rises to the occasion.

On the other hand, Jarry’s struggles in limited playoff action have been well documented, and fair or not, those moments linger. Add in some shaky outings leading into the Olympic break — which included calling out his new team’s defensive play — and the scrutiny only intensifies.

The Choice Was Made, The Oilers Must Make Jarry Work

In hindsight, there’s little value in looking back because the Oilers are committed to Jarry throughout the entirety of McDavid’s extension. At the time of the deal, the decision was defensible, albeit the risk was well known. Jarry was trending upward in two-time All-Star form, while Binnington was scuffling, carried a higher salary, and potentially required a more expensive trade package.

Still, even then, in the back of many minds was Binnington’s track record in high-pressure situations — something that made him feel like the safer bet when all was said and done. Of course, Edmonton needs to reach the playoffs for any of that to truly matter, and poor regular-season goaltending could jeopardize that. That said, this core has consistently found ways to get there, so it would obviously have been the expectation.

Therefore, if Binnington continues to shine on the Olympic stage, it will only raise further questions about why the Oilers passed on him — and whether another contender might decide he’s worth the gamble potentially as soon as this trade deadline.

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