Outlet Shows Avalanche Emerging as Clear Winners of the Rantanen Trade

Nearly a year after the blockbuster Mikko Rantanen–Martin Nečas deal, the early returns suggest the Colorado Avalanche may have pulled off one of the biggest quiet wins in several seasons. New research from RG.org breaks down 49-game sample sizes for both stars — and the results are really starting to tilt toward Colorado.

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On the surface, the trade looks pretty even. Of late, Rantanen has gotten himself in hot water with the league, earning fines and a one-game suspension for his recent antics. Still, both Rantanen and Nečas look evenly matched. Both are scoring at a point-per-game pace this season, and both are playing top-line, top-power-play minutes.

But upon a deeper look, the Avalanche’s advantage becomes hard to ignore.

Sergey Pryakhin digs into several areas to support the Avs look like the winners here. Start with the even-strength impact, in identical 22-game samples this season, Nečas has a stunning +19 rating compared to Rantanen’s -4. His even-strength scoring impacts are stronger, and Colorado controls a far larger share of expected goals with him on the ice (57.5% vs. Rantanen’s 51.4%). In simple terms: when Nečas plays, the Avalanche tilt the ice.

When comparing how Colorado performed as a team with each player, again it’s in favor of the Avalanche. In Rantanen’s 49-game stretch last season, the Avs were only +6 at 5-on-5. With Nečas over his first 49 games? They’re +20 — more than triple the differential. Expected goals, high-danger chances, goals for, goals against… Colorado improves across every meaningful metric with Nečas in the lineup.

And the chemistry with Nathan MacKinnon is undeniable. Their rush-heavy, speed-driven game has produced the most combined high-danger connections of any duo in the league. For all of Rantanen’s accomplishments, he never delivered this level of 5-on-5 dominance alongside MacKinnon. He writes, “It’s reasonable to assume that Nečas’s speed-driven style simply matches Nathan MacKinnon’s strengths better than Rantanen’s slower, possession-heavy approach.”

Yes, the power play took a hit without Rantanen’s left shot, but even that gap is narrowing — and Nečas is younger, cheaper long-term, and already producing elite numbers in meaningful game states.

If the playoffs are the final test, the Avalanche look better positioned than ever.

Next: Beyond Roster Trade, Maple Leafs Have Hit a Breaking Point