“Double Whammy”: Analyst on Why Auston Matthews’ Numbers Are Down

It’s not a stretch to say that Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs saved their season over these last two weeks. After a sluggish start that had many questioning the direction of the team, a 5-1-1 record over their last seven games has restored hope of not only securing a 10th straight trip to the playoffs, but making noise should they get there.

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The turnaround in Toronto has been sparked by tremendous goaltending, no matter who’s in net, the emergence of depth scoring from some unlikely sources, and an improved defensive structure, much more to Craig Berube’s liking.

Strangely enough, what hasn’t been a major factor in the Maple Leafs’ recent success is the return of their captain. While Matthews has been solid since coming back from injury, having tallied six points (three goals, three assists) in seven games, two of those points (one goal, one assist) have come via the empty net, and he just hasn’t looked like the 60-goal scorer fans are so used to seeing.

His health has evidently played a factor in some of that, though TSN analyst Craig Button believes the absence of Mitch Marner reigns above all when it comes to his underwhelming play and production.

Button said:

“Auston Matthews is still a very dangerous goal scorer. The other thing, oh by the way, let’s not bury the lead: no Mitch Marner. So when you think about the brilliance of Auston Matthews’ finishing, you’ve got the brilliance of the setup guy… You can see he’s just a little bit uncertain. The bottom line is, when you lose a player like Marner, you don’t just lose what Marner brought to you; you also lose what Marner gave to Matthews, that’s a double whammy,”

The 28-year-old’s numbers have yet to reach his usual standards in 2025-26, with 20 points (12 goals, eight assists) in the 24 games he’s played thus far.

Will 60-Goal Auston Matthews Ever Return?

We’re less than two years removed from Matthews absolutely lighting up the league for 69 goals and 107 points, but the eye test and numbers truly make you wonder whether we’ll see anything close to that from him again.

While the overall statistics aren’t great to begin with, what’s even more concerning is when you look under the hood.

NHL Edge has Matthews’ hardest shot this season tracked at 86.82 MPH, a far cry from the 91.43 MPH he was clocked at in 2023-24. In fact, his shot velocity has dropped in each of the last five seasons, with the most significant dip coming this year.

He’s also seen his maximum skating speed fall off this season to the tune of 21.57 MPH, which ranks below the 50th percentile among players around the league. As with his shot, Matthews’ top skating speed is down substantially from last season.

These numbers aren’t the be-all and end-all, but it’s uncommon to see such a drop-off for a superstar right in the middle of his prime, so whatever injury is nagging him must be more serious than he or the Maple Leafs are letting on, because he didn’t just all of a sudden lose his abilites.

Next: Mitch Marner is Still Taking Flak for Maple Leafs Playoff Shortcomings