40 Games Later: Evaluating Maple Leafs’ Risky Marner Replacement Plan

When the offseason saw Mitch Marner moved by the Toronto Maple Leafs, the idea that Toronto could replace one player with a committee (and save money) sounded ambitious. Instead of chasing another star winger and creating a new ‘Core Four’, Toronto chose to bring in three players, spreading the offense across and giving the team flexibility with their roster.

Nestor Quixstan of Heavy.com took a look at the trade halfway through the 2025-26 NHL season. He believes the move is showing signed it worked.

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Matias Maccelli came over in a trade with the Utah Mammoth. Dakota Joshua arrived from the Vancouver Canucks. Nic Roy returned as part of the sign-and-trade that sent Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights. None of them was meant to be “the next Marner.” As a trio, the idea was that they could produce more collectively.

It didn’t look great when the season began. Marner got off to a decent start, and the three Leafs were inconsistent. Now, halfway through the season, the numbers are hard to brush aside.

Marner has nine goals and 31 assists for 40 points in 38 games with Vegas; about what people might expect, if not a touch lower. Toronto’s trio has nearly matched that output. Maccelli has 15 points in 29 games, Roy has 14 in 37, and Joshua has chipped in 10 points in 36 appearances. Combined, that’s 39 points — essentially even with Marner.

What About the Maple Leafs Salary Cap Situation?

The cap picture makes an even more compelling argument that the Leafs might have gotten this right. Marner carries a $12 million cap hit. Maccelli, Roy, and Joshua come in at roughly $9.7 million combined. That’s similar production at a savings of about $2.5 million, which easily allows the Leafs to add another player, specifically around the trade deadline.

There have been bumps along the way, and there will likely be more. Joshua was up and down with his production before landing on injured reserve. He could be out for some time. That’s forced Easton Cowan and Nick Robertson to step up, which to date, they’ve done.

The bigger question is sustainability. Toronto remains in a crowded playoff race, only a couple of points out after a recent surge. The Leafs are open to adding help, but what’s out there and who might be available at a fair price isn’t clear.

There are still multiple ways this trade can go, and the only way to honestly evaluate it is over time. If the Leafs struggle and miss the playoffs, the move will be deemed a big loser. That is, unless the Golden Knights miss too.

Next: 3 Takeaways from Maple Leafs’ 6–5 Win Over the Jets