John Tavares realized a dream by playing for his local team, the Toronto Maple Leafs. Despite some fans’ beliefs that he’s experiencing declining production, that isn’t accurate. In fact, Tavares has consistently maintained his high level of performance throughout his career.
And, he’s doing it in Toronto playing for a team where the scrutiny can be intense. He also serves as the Maple Leafs’ team captain.
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Tavares’ Time with the Maple Leafs Has Been Filled with Scrutiny
Tavares would probably be better liked in Toronto; except, when he was offered a contract for $11 million, he signed it. Now, with one of the team’s biggest contracts, he consistently faces pressure. Often you hear accusations that his skating is deteriorating and that he’s losing his effectiveness.
The effectiveness part simply isn’t true. In fact, his point production has remained steady since joining the Maple Leafs in the 2018-19 season. Season after season, even as he ages, he’s consistently delivering and producing.
Still, Tavares has faced scrutiny about his performance. Some label him as a declining player. However, a closer look at his statistics reveals that his point production has not decreased. Concerns about his declining foot speed have prompted discussions about potentially moving him to the wing to adapt to the changing dynamics of his game.
The addition of players like Max Domi (this season) and Ryan O’Reilly (after last season) has provided the opportunity to move Tavares to the wing position; and, when that’s happened (last season for example) he has played well there. However, if the 2023-24 season were to begin today, he’d be in his usual second-line center spot.
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Comparing Tavares’ Production Between the Islanders and Maple Leafs
In the remainder of this post, I want to compare Tavares’ production during his last five seasons with the New York Islanders and his first five seasons with the Maple Leafs using his seasonal statistics.
Tavares Last Five Seasons in New York
Tavares’ last five seasons with the Islanders (2013-2018) look like this:
In the 2013-14 season, Tavares played 59 games, scoring 24 goals and adding 42 assists (for 66 points).
In the 2014-15 season, he played 82 games, with 38 goals, 48 assists, and 86 points.
In 2015-16, he played 78 games, with 33 goals, 37 assists, and 70 points.
In 2016-17, he played 77 games, with 28 goals, 38 assists, and 66 points.
In his last season in New York (2017-18), he played 82 games, with 37 goals, 47 assists, and 84 points.
Tavares First Five Seasons in Toronto
Tavares’ first five seasons with the Maple Leafs (2018-2023) look like this:
In the 2018-19 season, Tavares played 82 games, scoring 47 goals and adding 41 assists (for 88 points). It was his best career season.
In the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season, he played 63 games, with 26 goals, 34 assists, and 60 points.
In 2020-21 (also COVID-shortened), he played 56 games, with 19 goals, 31 assists, and 50 points.
In 2021-22, he played 79 games, with 27 goals, 49 assists, and 76 points.
Last season (2022-23), he played 80 games, with 36 goals, 44 assists, and 80 points.
Comparing the Two Five-Season Periods
Looking at Tavares’ two five-season periods, one can make a number of generalizations.
Generalization One: There Has Been Consistency in Tavaes’ Point Production
One generalization we can make is that Tavares has maintained relatively consistent point production throughout his career. Whether with the Islanders or the Maple Leafs, he consistently averaged around 60 to 88 points per season.
Generalization Two: Tavares Has Had a Goal-Scoring Surge in Toronto
Tavares’ goal-scoring significantly increased when he joined the Maple Leafs. In his first season in Toronto (2018-19), he scored an impressive 47 goals, significantly higher than his previous seasons with the Islanders. This trend continued with consistently high goal totals in subsequent seasons. He has only a few (seven) goals fewer with the Maple Leafs, even though so many games were missed because of the pandemic.
Generalization Three: Tavares’ Assist Numbers Have Remained Consistent
While Tavares’ goal-scoring increased in Toronto, his assist numbers remained relatively consistent compared to his time with the Islanders. He continued to contribute as a playmaker, even with his increased goal-scoring.
Generalization Four: Tavares’ Impact on the Team Has Been Positive
Tavares’ impact on the Maple Leafs is notable in the team’s performance. During his tenure in Toronto, the team consistently performed well in the regular season, often competing at or near the top of their division.
Generalization Five: Tavares’ Plus/Minus Rating Has Improved with the Maple Leafs
Tavares’ plus-minus rating improved significantly when he joined the Maple Leafs. While he had a few seasons with negative ratings with the Islanders, his plus-minus improved during his time in Toronto, indicating a more positive impact on the team’s success.
The Bottom Line
In summary, Tavares has been a consistent point producer throughout his career. Despite his age, instead of slowing down, his goal-scoring has increased after joining the Maple Leafs and his overall production is a wash. His impact on his team’s performance and his ability to contribute both as a goal-scorer and playmaker would make him a valuable asset to any team he plays for. Fortunately, he plays for the Maple Leafs.
If fans believe that Tavares’ play has diminished, they’re wrong. If anything, his production and impact have increased.
That doesn’t mean some fans won’t think he’s overpaid and might want to send him out of town. However, at least it would be fair to feel that way for a “right” reason. It isn’t his production.
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