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By the Numbers: The Best Maple Leafs 2020-21 Offensive D-man?

Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs worked to strengthen their defense – and did. Who was the best offensive defenseman on the team?

In this post, I’m joining with long-time Toronto Maple Leafs’ fan Stan Smith to compare the regular-season play for the seven defensemen who suited up for the Maple Leafs during the 2020-21 regular season. Our goal is to try to answer the question: “Which Maple Leafs’ defenseman was the best offensive defenseman on the team in 5-on-5 play during the 2020-21 regular season?” 

Related: Maple Leafs Still Haven’t Made G Frederik Andersen a Contract Offer

Background Notes for the Analysis

For the purpose of this post, we’re going to use three main categories and their subcategories tracked by Naturalststtrick. The main categories include (1) Shot Generation, (2) Scoring Chances Generated, and (3) Goals Generated. 

These main categories are also broken into sub-categories. For example, Shot Generation includes the sub-categories (a) Corsi For (shot attempts), and (b) Shots For. 

The main category of Scoring Chances Generated includes the sub-categories (a) Scoring Chances For and (b) High Danger Scoring Chances 

And, the main category of Goals Generated includes the sub-categories (a) Goals For and (b) Expected Goals For.  

Generating an Overall Ranking

To come up with an overall ranking, we have assigned points according to where a player ranks in each statistic. Each player will be given 10 for first, 9 for second, 8 for third, 7 for fourth, 6 for fifth, 5 for sixth, and four points for seventh and last place. 

Zach Bogosian

The seven defensemen who’ll be compared in this review will be T.J. Brodie, Morgan Rielly, Justin Holl, Jake Muzzin, Travis Dermott, Zach Bogosian, and Rasmus Sandin. 

Comparison One: Main Category One: Shot Generation

(Acronyms TOI (time on ice), CF (Corsi For), Per 60 (shot attempts per 60 minutes)

Sub-category (a): Corsi For (or Shot Attempts)
RankNameTime on IceCorsi ForPer 60 Min
1Muzzin94088756.4
2Bogosian576.552855.0
3Sandin1119853.0
4Holl96985252.8
5Rielly105092052.6
6Brodie1032.589952.2
7Dermott636.554551.4
Sub-category (b): Shots on Net
RankNameTime on IceShotsPer 60 Min
1Sandin 111 88732.4
2Muzzin 94052831.5
3Bogosian576.59831.1
4Holl96985229.4
5Dermott 636.5 92029.1
6Rielly105089928.7
7Brodie1032.554528.7

Sub-category (c): Total Points, and Ranking for Shot Generation
RankNameCorsi ForShotsTotal
1Muzzin 10919
2Sandin 81018
3Bogosian9817
4Holl7714
5Rielly511
6Brodie5510
7Dermott 4610

By the Numbers Summary:

By the numbers, Jake Muzzin ranked first first in Corsi and second in actual shots, which puts him at the top of the Shot Generation portion of the Offense by Defense, with 19 points. 

Rasmus Sandin: Ranking ranked first in shots and third in Corsi and finishes in second place in this ranking. Contextually, however, it’s important to remember that Sandin only played 111 minutes played 5-on-5, so small sample, and his minutes are bottom pairing, and sheltered. 

Zach Bogosian: Bogosian is a surprise. Most fans consider Bogosian a stay-at-home physical defenseman who has never produced much offensively at any level he’s even played. The majority of his ice time comes on the bottom pair, so he’s usually not facing the opposition’s best players. At the same time, he’s also playing with bottom six players. Bogosian shows better than 

Justin Holl:  Holl does play against top-six players, and with top-six players.  Being middle of the pack, for what he earns is good.

Morgan Rielly: Here is another surprise. Rielly is supposed to be the Leafs best offensive defenseman, and he plays a lot with the Maple Leafs top offensive players. We would expect him to have better shot generation numbers. 

Morgan Rielly Toronto Maple Leafs
Morgan Rielly Toronto Maple Leafs

TJ Brodie:  Brodie is usually glued to Rielly’s hip, and he is there to take care of the defensive things. His shot generation numbers being similar to Rielly’s makes sense.

Travis Dermott: Travis finishes the shot generation part of this tied with Brodie for last. It is interesting that he finished last in Corsi, but was two spots better when it came to actual shots. 

Scoring Chance Generation

Scoring Chances For

RankNameTime on IceScoring Chances ForPer 60 Min
1Muzzin 94049931.9
2Rielly105055131.5
3Brodie 1032.552730.6
4Bogosian576.5 28529.7
5Sandin 111 5429.2
6Holl96946728.9
7Dermott 636.5  29527.8

High Danger Scoring Chances For

RankNameTime on IceHDSCFPer 60 Min
1Sandin 111 2413.0
2Bogosian576.512312.8
3Rielly105021912.5
4Brodie 1032.520812.1
5Muzzin 94018511.8
6Holl96918711.6
7Dermott 636.5 19511.5

Total Points for Scoring Chances Generated

RankNameSCFHDSCFPer 60 Min
1Rielly 9817
2Muzzin 10616
2Bogosian7916
2Sandin 61016
5Brodie 715
6Holl5510
7Dermott448

Summary Notes

Morgan Rielly: Now this is more what we expect from Rielly. While he was down the list in Shots Generated, here he is #2 in Scoring Chances, and #3 in High Danger Scoring Chances, giving him first place in this section. In a way this makes sense. Similar to Marner, Rielly is a past first player, and rarely shoots. We could see that resulting in less overall shots, but more scoring chances. 

Jake Muzzin: First in Scoring Chances, but fifth in High Danger Scoring Chances. This kind of matches the eye test, as we don’t often see Muzzin deep in the zone. He will venture in to pinch, but usually returns back to the point. He will take shots from there, but rarely goes into the high danger scoring areas.

Zach Bogosian: Surprise again. Here he is once again near the top of an offensive category. It makes us wonder if he gives the players around him the confidence to attack offensively, while he takes care of defense.  

Rasmus Sandin:  He is the opposite of Muzzin, fifth in Scoring Chances, first in High Danger Chances. Again, keep in mind, this is a very small sample.  

TJ Brodie: Brodie is middle-of-the-road in Scoring Chances overall. The numbers in this category are really close, and he is only two points behind Rielly,

Justin Holl: He is not on the ice for his offense, so his numbers here make sense.

Travis Dermott: Dermott is last in Shots and last in Scoring Chances. Dermott does not show much offensively to this point. 

Goals  For / Expected Goals For.

RankNameTime on IceGoals ForPer 60 Min
1Sandin 111 84.3
2Muzzin 940523.3
3Brodie 1032.5553.2
4Holl969483.0
5Rielly1050502.9
6Bogosian576.5262.7
7Dermott 636.5191.8

Expected Goals For

RankNameTime on IceXGFPer 60 Min
1Muzzin94060.53.9
2Brodie1032.565.53.8
3Holl96953.93.3
4Rielly105044.82.6
5Bogosian576.5242.5
6Sandin1114.42.4
7Dermott636.5 242.3

Total Points for Goals and Expected Goals For

RankNameGFXGFPoints
1Muzzin 1019
2Brodie8917
3Holl 7815
3Sandin 10515
5Rielly713
6Bogosian5611
7Dermott 448

Summary Notes

Jake Muzzin: Second in Goals For and first in Expected Goals For. That puts Muzzin second in actual offensive production, and first in expected offensive production.  

TJ Brodie:  Third in Goals For and second in Expected Goals For. Brodie fares much better when it comes to results, and expected results than he does in the generation of Shots and Scoring Chances.

Justin Holl: Holl is also much higher in the results than in his generation of shots or chances. 

Rasmus Sandin: It’s curious that Sandin finishes first in actual goals, but second last in expected goals. Is there some luck involved here?

Morgan Rielly: Not great in Shots. Really good in Scoring Chances. But he’s not so great in results and expected results.

Zach Bogosian: Third in shots, tied for second in scoring chances, but Bogosian takes a big tumble in results and expected results. 

Travis Dermott:  Shots? Last. Scoring Chances? Last. Goals and Expected Goals? Last. The 2020-21 season was definitely not a good one offensively for Dermott. At least, the numbers don’t love him.

Overall Total Points and Rankings for Offense From the Maple Leafs’ Defense 5-on-5 for the 2020-21 Season

RankNameShotsScoring ChancesGoalsTotal Points
1Muzzin19161954
2Sandin18161549
3Bogosian17161144
4Brodie10151742
5Rielly11171341
6Holl14101539
7Dermott108826

Related: The New Side of Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas: He’s Angry!

Summary Notes

Jake Muzzin: First in offense from defense this season. He’s a consistent offensive generator.

Rasmus Sandin: He improves from sixth last year to second this year.  He played three times the minutes last season than he did this season.  If he would have played the same amount this year would his numbers go down?  We really can’t say. 

Zach Bogosian: While his results weren’t great, he still finished third overall for offense as a defenseman. Is this an outlier, or is Bogosian quietly better offensively than he shows with the eye test?

Morgan Rielly: We think this is the most interesting result of all. Last season, when Rielly played hurt for most of the season, he lost his role on the power-play to Tyson Barrie. It was thought that Rielly had struggled offensively; however, he finished on top for offense from the defensemen. This season he was  healthy and, by the eye test, he played better offensively. Yet, he drops to fourth in offensive stats.  

TJ Brodie: Because Rielly and Brodie were tied to each other most of the season, it makes sense that they finish in a virtual tie offensively.

Justin Holl: Holl ranked fifth last season with 34 points and sixth this season with 39. We would have to say offensively this feels about right for Jake. 

Travis Dermott. According to our ranking system, Dermott has 28 points last season and 26 points this season. He’s been at or near the bottom offensively both seasons. He’s consistently been last on the team both seasons.

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